The differences are blurring between gambling, stock speculation, and investing. If Kalshi is gambling, how does it differ from trading traditional financial instruments that are affected by unknown future events like Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, inflation data, and stock market indices?
I've seen plenty of lawsuits and dirt specifically on Kalshi, but have yet to see one on Polymarket. Is there anything specific states have against Kalshi over other prediction markets, or are they just the first/most prominent of what will be a wave of lawsuits against these kinds of companies generally?
“Donald Trump Jr was handed about $300,000 worth of equity in Kalshi after joining the prediction market platform as a strategic adviser in early 2025” [1].
If you’re in a state with a Democrat AG which is also pursuing Kalshi in court, look up your state’s bribery laws and see if your AG can open an investigation into criminal conduct under state law.
I mean, prediction markets are gambling by all accounts, so this should have been expected no? On a personal level I'm really hoping this is the end of the massive rise in "swaps" over the last few years since it's been an obnoxious trend.
I'm against government regulation of gambling in principle but in reality, they have an uphill battle trying to convince any reasonable person that 'its platform offers “swaps” that can only be regulated by the US Commodity Futures Exchange (CFTC)'.
These betting marketplaces that take any proposition are either dealing in gambling or futures and derivatives trading. So if they don't fall under gambling laws and regulations, they can deal with the SEC digging into their businesses instead. They might want to pick their battles.
Ninth circuit case, second circuit case, and third circuit case are all different outcomes because they are judging state laws in federal courts, different states within their respective circuit
I think Nevada’s and Arkansas was also mentioned - I guess Arkansas is in the fifth circuit - those are more comprehensive and broad than New Jersey’s in the third circuit
Ultimately I expect Kalshi will have the swaps treatment reaffirmed, and the supremacy clause will override most of the state laws
But for Nevada and Arkansas residents it will be unworkable, and they will just block some forms of bets for residents in those states
Kalshi court losses pile up as judges refuse to block state gambling laws
(arstechnica.com)93 points by Analemma_ 3 hours ago | 96 comments
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If you’re in a state with a Democrat AG which is also pursuing Kalshi in court, look up your state’s bribery laws and see if your AG can open an investigation into criminal conduct under state law.
[1] https://www.ft.com/content/f70147b1-ee77-4d75-8587-707a49ddb...
I think Nevada’s and Arkansas was also mentioned - I guess Arkansas is in the fifth circuit - those are more comprehensive and broad than New Jersey’s in the third circuit
Ultimately I expect Kalshi will have the swaps treatment reaffirmed, and the supremacy clause will override most of the state laws
But for Nevada and Arkansas residents it will be unworkable, and they will just block some forms of bets for residents in those states